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New crime prediction software being rolled out in the nation's capital should reduce not only the murder rate, but the rate of many other crimes as well.
Software Predicts Criminal Behavior
A computer program is helping law enforcement determine who is most likely to commit crime.

Developed by Richard Berk, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, the software is already used in Baltimore and Philadelphia to predict which individuals on probation or parole are most likely to murder and to be murdered.

In his latest version, the one being implemented in D.C., Berk goes even further, identifying the individuals most likely to commit crimes other than murder.

If the software proves successful, it could influence sentencing recommendations and bail amounts.

"When a person goes on probation or parole they are supervised by an officer. The question that officer has to answer is 'what level of supervision do you provide?'" said Berk.

It used to be that parole officers used the person's criminal record, and their good judgment, to determine that level.

"This research replaces those seat-of-the-pants calculations," he said.

Technology Helps Determine Level of Supervision Needed for People on Probation or Parole

Murders, despite their frequent appearance on cop dramas and the evening news, are rare crimes. On average there is one murder for every 100,000 people. Even among high-risk groups the murder rate is one in 100. Trying to predict such a rare event is very difficult, so difficult that many researchers deemed it impossible.

"It's like trying to find the needle in the haystack," said Berk.

New advances in computer technology, however, can sift through that haystack more quickly and more accurately than ever.

Beginning several years ago, the researchers assembled a dataset of more than 60,000 various crimes, including homicides. Using an algorithm they developed, they found a subset of people much more likely to commit homicide when paroled or probated. Instead of finding one murderer in 100, the UPenn researchers could identify eight future murderers out of 100.

Berk's software examines roughly two dozen variables, from criminal record to geographic location. The type of crime, and more importantly, the age at which that crime was committed, were two of the most predictive variables.

Technology Doesn't Predict Future Crimes

"People assume that if someone murdered then they will murder in the future," said Berk. "But what really matters is what that person did as a young individual. If they committed armed robbery at age 14 that's a good predictor. If they committed the same crime at age 30, that doesn't predict very much."

Baltimore and Philadelphia are already using Berk's software to help determine how much supervision parolees should have. Washington, D.C. is now set to use the algorithm to help determine lesser crimes as well. If those tests go well, Berk says the program could help set bail amounts and suggest sentencing recommendations.

Predicting future crimes does sound, well, futuristic, said Berk. Even his students at the University of Pennsylvania compare his research to the Tom Cruise movie "Minority Report."

Nevertheless, he said, "We aren't anywhere near being able to do that."

Scientifically, Berk's results are "very impressive," said Shawn Bushway, a professor of criminal justice at the State University of New York at Albany who is familiar with Berk's research.

Predicting rare events like murder, even among high-risk individuals, is extremely difficult, said Bushway, and Berk is doing a better job of it than anyone else.

But Berk's scientific answer leaves policymakers with difficult questions, said Bushway. By labeling one group of people as high risk, and monitoring them with increased vigilance, there should be fewer murders, which the potential victims should be happy about.

It also means that those high-risk individuals will be monitored more aggressively. For inmate rights advocates, that is tantamount to harassment, "punishing people who, most likely, will not commit a crime in the future," said Bushway.

"It comes down to a question of whether you would rather make these errors or those errors," said Bushway.

Source:
abcnews

Minority report? No more like the police state and thought police of George Orwell's 1984!

Steve Watson
Prisonplanet.com
Wednesday, April 28th, 2010

Downtown Toronto To Be Transformed Into Locked Down Police State This Summer. Preparations are underway for a massive show of force in Toronto this Summer as the G20 summit comes to town. Unprecedented levels of security are being undertaken, with one of the largest movie studios in North America being transformed into a giant holding facility for unruly protesters.

Police say they are prepared for huge protests during the summit, scheduled to convene over the weekend of June 26/27.

Toronto law enforcement officials have announced they are “tapping” social network websites to monitor the potential activities of protesters as they gear up for the event.

“(Social media) allows people to communicate in a lot more different ways. It’s just another tool,” Const. Wendy Drummond told CP24 news. “The way we police our protests hasn’t changed.”

“The Olympics that you saw recently in Vancouver was actually the largest security event ever to take place here in Canada. The G20/G8 surpasses that completely,” Const. Ed Boltuc, a Toronto Police Services officer and liaison with the RCMP-led Integrated Security Unit, told the Toronto Star recently.

“There’s going to be a massive — absolutely massive — presence of police and security on the ground like you’ve never seen before.” Boltuc added.

The Globe and Mail has reported that up to10,000 uniformed officers, along with a 1,000 private security guards will be deployed, as well as Canadian military forces. The security costs are expected to cost the Canadian government (taxpayers) $179 million.

The plans include two security perimeters, walled in with huge 3 meter high fences, with Toronto police in charge of the outer zone and the RCMP in charge of the inner zone. Anyone entering the inner perimeter, where the Metro Convention Centre is located, will be processed through five levels of airport style security screening.


Various checkpoints throughout Toronto will be outfitted with “Magnetometers,” “walk-through metal detectors,” “X-Ray belt driven scanners” and “hand-held metal detectors.”

Residents and workers in the area will have to register with the authorities to get access to their homes and businesses during the meeting.

The Canadian Forces plans are described as “large-scale operational planning, land and air surveillance, underwater safety and security for the venues and some logistic and ceremonial functions. Support also includes drawing on the CF’s ongoing partnership in the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD).”

Protesters will also be subject to designated free speech zones. If they breach these zones they will be forced to move or be arrested.

Police have announced that they will be using a massive movie studio as a temporary jail. The building is roughly five kilometres from the Convention Centre, outside the two security zones. The plan echoes tactics employed in the U.S. at recent DNC and RNC Conventions, where thousands of protesters were indiscriminately rounded up and kept for up to several hours in temporary prisons.

Sunday saw tactical officers take over part of the underground in the financial district of downtown Toronto in an unannounced simulated hostage event. Police worked in tandem with private security guards and we’re seen herding people through the building.

On April 15Th 2010, Sarah Palin attended a Charity event in the city of Hamilton.

Many truthers in the area agreed to come out, and attend the event. So we could give Sarah a nice big Welcome to southern Ontario.

I arrived at Carmen's banquet hall a 3pm. Surprisingly I was the only one there other then police and a few msm people. At 4pm I decided to talk to the camrea guy for CHCH news. Two men in suites immediately asked me to leave the property. They told me to stand at the curb.

I did so. I moved to a bus stop on the sidewalk. I had time to shoot a short video clip and have a drink of vegtable juice. A police officer then came over and asked me for my info. When I respectfully declined, he became very aggitated. He then told me I had to cross the street. I asked in a relaxed tone if this was a public sidewalk? His response was cross the street now!

Being there alone and without the camera running I decided to comply. I crossed the street and sat down on a patch of grass. At the same time I noticed another person, down the street a little more. He was sitting down and painting a sign.

Not even 5 minutes later another police officer and a man in a suite pulled up in a police vehicle. Once again asking who I was and why I was there. I respectfully declined to give my info again.

The police officer began telling me how in a large event, the police have to ID everyone, to ensure public safety. Further in the conversation the man in the suite (who was sitting in the passenger side of the police vehicle) began speaking about detaining people for refusing to provide their info. He also went on to say that they could detain people until they are satisfied that person is not going to commit a crime.

Being there alone I decided to once again submit and give them my ID.

about a half hour later I was speaking with the other protester, who was now waving his sign at cars that drove by. I asked him if the police had requested to see his ID. He told me that they had not.

So after the police told me that they HAD to ID everyone in the area.. They left him alone. I guess to the police, a camera is much more dangerous then a sign.

Without any one else there, I decided to just join in with the protester. We stayed until 8pm, getting many cars to honk in support.

The next day one newspaper went as far as Calling us the two "lowly" protestors..


This event for me was a real wake up call to the police state we live in. Not only were my rights trampled on, but the msm insulted the both of us (big surprise).

More people need to wake up to this nonsense before it is too late!

Here are two videos that show how great the 2010 Olympics is for Canadians.

Here are two stories that really make you wonder what is going with the RCMP. First is the story of Rick Simpson, and the second is the story of Dr. Eldon Dahl. Both men were not doing anything wrong except not going along with Big Pharma. Which is not a crime in Canada (yet).

Here is a brief overview of the story of Rick Simpson.


Here is Dr. Eldon Dahl's story.
Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4


Both of these stories happened in late 2009. About the same time that Parliament was trying to pass Bill C6. Bill C6 had text in it that would have given Health Canada and the RCMP the powers to search your home without warrant, and label anything they decided to, as illegal.

If this is how our government is going to conduct itself. We the people need to take action. I fear that if we allow tyranny like this to continue, it will not be long until we are in a full police state!

We are at a critical juncture in history. A technological revolution is unfolding that is anticipated to alter humanity forever. We are witnessing the rise of tyrannical global governance and the fall of America. Elites around the world are keenly aware of the importance of the historical time we are living in.

They want to be masters of the future.

What will you do?

Dwight D. Eisenhower
Farewell Address
delivered 17 January 1961

Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers. The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present -- and is gravely to be regarded.

Link;
http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/dwightdeisenhowerfarewell.html